Saturday Tradition’s Ultimate 2024 Big Ten Preview: Welcome to the empire (2024)

Saturday Tradition’s Ultimate 2024 Big Ten Preview: Welcome to the empire (1)

BIG TEN

Matt Hinton| 8 days ago

Everything, and we mean everything, you need to know to get up to speed on the 2024 Big Ten football season, all in one place.
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In many years of writing conference previews, I have never been tempted to open with a philosophical treatise titled “What Is a Conference?” Not once! Never occurred to me. The concept has been fairly well established in college football for, oh, about 130 years, give or take. And as an organizing principle, it’s never really changed, even as so much else about the sport remains in a constant state of upheaval. Schools have been swapping rooms forever. Conferences are the walls that hold up the house.

Far from just the latest round of remodeling, though, the Big Ten’s expansion to the West Coast is the kind of fundamental shift that makes you tale stock of the foundations. Poaching USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington from their ancestral home in the Pac-[x] was not just an unprecedented power move among the major conferences: It also ushered in a status quo that stretches the traditional premise of why conferences exist past its breaking point. The “why are there 14 teams in the Big Ten lol”era already looks quaint by comparison.

The old idea of conference assumed some basic semblance of geographic identity, however strained. The new Big Ten stretches from coast to coast, spanning more than 2,800 miles from the D.C. suburbs to Seattle. (UCLA alone, which opens at Hawai’i, will travel more than 22,000 miles over the course of the season, roughly equivalent to 89% of the Earth’s circumference.) The old idea valued continuity, shared culture and tradition (hence this site’s name), the older the better.

The new Big Ten detonated century-old in-state rivalries to link up Washington and Oregon with Penn State and Rutgers. The old idea promised familiarity, the assurance that over time fans would come to anticipate the rhythms of the schedule and get to know their conference rivals like neighbors. (Even if they’re the kind of neighbors you long to defeat or, even better, expose as criminals.) The new Big Ten is so, well, big that even a 9-game conference schedule only allows each team to face half the league in a given season, with potentially long gaps between its dates with the other half. Certain core rivalries are preserved — there’s no danger of Michigan-Ohio State or the Old Oaken Bucket going on the chopping block anytime soon — but as for everyone else, we’ll see you when we see you.

You can call this colossal entity standing astride the continent a lot of things, and I’m betting that over the last 12 months most of you reading this probably have. But if it still qualifies as a conference, it’s only to the extent that it has managed to fundamentally redefine what that means.

It’s not exactly novel at this point to observe that this process of expansion, extinction and redefinition is being driven exclusively by the bottom line, with no regard for what fans of the sport want or even necessarily what the schools themselveswant, other than money. No one asked for this. There was no secret plan to blow up the Pac-12. Nobody imagined themselves winding up on a committee that felt it was left with no choice but to vote to press delete. A hypothetical commissioner of college sports — or anyone in charge in any capacity, really — would have never allowed a single meeting on the subject to take place. But there is no one in charge, save maybe a handful of executives at ESPN and FOX for whom a century-and-a-half of tradition amounts to little more than numbers on a spreadsheet, and no one secure enough in their position to risk turning down the highest bidder. So here we are. Oregon hosts Maryland in conference play on Nov. 9.

Part of the unease with the current phase of realignment is the feeling that, dramatic as the past few years have been, they still represent only a temporary step on the inevitable road to college football’s fully professionalized future — 2 super conferences, 3 at most, finally cleaved off from the sport’s lower rungs, operating more like the AFC and NFC than anything resembling a traditional “conference” as we’ve come to know it. (And compensating the players accordingly, the one part of this vision I endorse.)

To which I say: Bring it on already. There is no going back.

The Big Ten and the SEC have chartered the course toward a future where they are the only two vaguely conference-shaped brands that matter and are halfway down it. Why drag out the limbo stage between what the sport was and what it’s going to be any longer than necessary?

They know where they’re going. We all do. Go ahead and get there. It may take awhile, but the rest of us will catch up eventually.

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The Teams: Projected Order of Finish

Before we get started, let’s make clear up front that these projections take schedules into account in an effort to forecast the actual order at the end of the regular season. They are not pure power rankings. In a league with 18 teams and varying strengths of schedule, the distinction matters, as we’ll see.

1. Ohio State

I don’t think I can bring myself to accept the premise of a coach with Ryan Day’s immaculate win-loss record on the hot seat. But I admit it kinda feels like it, right? Only two things matter at Ohio State: 1) Beating Michigan and 2) winning rings. Day’s Buckeyes are on a 3-game skid on the first count and 0-for-5 on the second.

Against that disgruntled backdrop, the vibe in 2024 is all-in. With the notable exception of Marvin Harrison Jr., almost everyone else who had the option to come back took it — seniors TreVeyon Henderson, Emeka Egbuka, Donovan Jackson, JT Tuimoloau, Jack Sawyer, Tyleik Williams and Denzel Burke all passed up a shot at going on Day 1 or 2 of the draft for 1 more year on campus. (How remarkable that a sudden outbreak in school spirit happened to coincide with the arrival of unrestrained NIL networks.) The Buckeyes won the sweepstakes for 2 of the most coveted names in the portal, RB Quinshon Judkins (Ole Miss) and DB Caleb Downs (Alabama); signed a veteran quarterback, Kansas State’s Will Howard, to replace outgoing starter Kyle McCord; and ponied up to lure a revered offensive innovator, Chip Kelly, from the head-coaching gig at UCLA to take over Day’s role as chief play-caller. This is an outfit desperate to get over the hump against the Wolverines and beyond, and to avoid the implicit “…or else” looming at the end of that sentence if it doesn’t.

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Buckeyes at a Glance…
2023 Recap: 11-2 (8-1 Big Ten; Lost Cotton Bowl; 10th in final AP poll)
Best Player: RB TreVeyon Henderson
Best Pro Prospect: WR Emeka Egbuka
Best Additions: DB Caleb Downs (Alabama) … RB Quinshon Judkins (Ole Miss)
Best Name: QB Prentiss “Air” Noland III
Tenured Vet: CB Denzel Burke (4th year; 35 career starts)
Emerging Dude: Freshman WR Jeremiah Smith

Biggest strength: An abundance of playmakers on offense. When they’re healthy, TreVeyon Henderson and Emeka Egbuka easily rank among the best in the country at their respective positions. Quinshon Judkins and Jeremiah Smith were arguably the top players in the transfer portal and the incoming freshman class, respectively, regardless of position. (More on both below in the individual honors section.) Everyone else in line for meaningful touches is a former top-100 recruit. Pick your poison.

Nagging concern: Stability in the middle of the offensive line. Last year’s starting center, Carson Hinzman, was the weak link up front, posting red-flag PFF grades as both a run blocker (54.8) and pass blocker (42.4). Hinzman is still aboard, but has been demoted in favor of Alabama transfer Seth McLaughlin, whose season-long struggles with errant snaps in 2023 ultimately made him the goat (not the good kind) of Bama’s early Playoff exit. Center is one of the last positions where an ambitious team can afford a lack of trust.

Looming question: Is Will Howard the answer at quarterback? He looks the part at 6-4, 237 pounds, and he’s a plus athlete for his size. Beyond the eye test, though, Howard’s track record as a passer at Kansas State was hardly the stuff of hosannas: In 2023, his only season as the full-time starter, he ranked 54th nationally in efficiency, 52nd in passing EPA and 68th in PFF passing grade — well below the much-maligned Kyle McCord on all counts. Of course, Howard’s new surrounding cast is a dramatic upgrade over what he had to work with at K-State. But even if he’d stayed in Manhattan, he would have been in for a battle to fend off rising sophomore Avery Johnson, and it’s not obvious the incumbent would have been favored to win it.

Anyway you slice it, on an otherwise loaded roster Howard is the single biggest variable in the equation. If he delivers a win over Michigan and a deep Playoff run, he’s a Buckeye for life. If not, he joins McCord as just another guy who came and went en route to a winter of discontent.

The schedule: The nonconference lineup (Akron, Western Michigan, Marshall) is a joke. Things don’t get interesting until a pair of October road trips to Oregon and Penn State, which will determine exactly how much is stake when Michigan comes to Columbus on Nov. 30.

The upshot: The championship-or-bust vibes come with a real sense of urgency. Ryan Day is 56-8 as Ohio State’s head coach, but 6 of those 8 losses have come in the biggest games of his tenure against Michigan and in the Playoff. He hasn’t beaten the Wolverines since 2019 or won a CFP game since 2020. At least one of those streaks must end.

Saturday Tradition’s Ultimate 2024 Big Ten Preview: Welcome to the empire (2)

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2. Oregon

Dan Lanning has done the job he was hired to do, roster-wise, aggressively upgrading the overall talent base in short order. Oregon’s traditional recruiting classes and transfer portal hauls have both ranked in the top 10 nationally in each of the past 2 cycles, per 247Sports’ composite rating, yielding the Big Ten’s deepest roster outside of Columbus, Ohio, and the most serious championship aspirations in Eugene in a decade. Those hopes are in the well-traveled hands of QB Dillon Gabriel, a 6th-year vet with prior stops at UCF and Oklahoma who has started more games, taken more snaps and accounted for more yards and touchdowns at the FBS level than any other returning quarterback in the country. If his Bo Nix-like profile translates into a decent approximation of Nix’s hyper-efficient output, the Ducks have every reason to expect to be playing well into January.

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Ducks at a Glance…
2023 Recap: 12-2 (8-2 Pac-12; Won Fiesta Bowl; T-6th AP)
Best Player: QB Dillon Gabriel
Best Pro Prospect: WR Evan Stewart
Best Additions: Gabriel (Oklahoma), Stewart (Texas A&M), and CB Jabbar Muhammad (Washington)
Best Name: K Atticus Sappington
Tenured Vet: OL Matthew Bedford (6th year; 39 career starts at Indiana)
Emerging Dude: Junior RB Jordan James

Biggest strength: A fully equipped passing attack assembled largely via the portal. The headliners, Dillon Gabriel and Evan Stewart, are dead ringers for the departed combo of Bo Nix and Troy Franklin. The holdovers include textbook examples of both a shifty slot type (Tez Johnson, originally at Troy) and a chain-moving tight end (Terrance Ferguson); a pair of blue-chip vets, Traeshon Holden and Gary Bryant Jr., who began their careers at Alabama and USC, respectively; and a pair of future pros at the tackles (Josh Conerly Jr. and Ajani Cornelius, a transfer from the FCS ranks) who allowed a single sack between them in 2023. Further down the depth chart, you’ll find a couple of 5-star sophomores, QB Dante Moore (via UCLA) and WR Jurrion Dickey, who are unlikely to see much meaningful time barring injury. When guys like that are waiting in the wings in Year 2, that’s when you know a program has arrived.

Nagging concern: An inconsistent pass rush. More than half of Oregon’s 34 sacks last year came in 3 games against Pac-12 bottom-dwellers Colorado, Stanford and Washington State, and the most productive member of the rotation, Brandon Dorlus, left for the draft. Sophomore edge Matayo Uiagalelei (yes, his older brother is FSU QB DJ) is on breakout watch; otherwise, turning up the heat is likely to be a committee effort.

Looming question: Can the rebuilt secondary pick up where it left off? The Ducks lost 3 starters from a unit that led the Pac-12 in pass efficiency defense, but experience on the back end is the least of their concerns: 4 potential starters enrolled in January as part of the transfer haul, 3 of whom — Jabbar Muhammad (Washington), Kam Alexander (UT-San Antonio) and Kobe Savage (Kansas State) — earned all-conference nods at their previous stops. Factor in a significantly less accomplished lineup of opposing QBs, and there’s no excuse for a drop-off.

The schedule: There are a handful of interesting road trips (at Oregon State, at UCLA, at Michigan, at Wisconsin), but the defining date is a midseason visit from Ohio State. Beat the Buckeyes, and the margin for error in the CFP race eases considerably.

The upshot: Four of Oregon’s 5 losses under Lanning have come in games the Ducks led in the 4th quarter, including a pair down-to-the-wire heartbreakers against Washington in 2023 that kept them out of the Playoff. One small step toward closing out those games in ’24 could result in a giant leap come the postseason.

3. Penn State

Penn State under James Franklin has settled into one of the most maddening ruts in sports: The limbo stage where you’re consistently good enough to compete for championships but never quite good enough to win one. Despite their reliable presence in the top 10, the Nittany Lions haven’t been able to break the glass ceiling in the conference, dropping 7 straight against Ohio State and 3 straight to Michigan without so much as sniffing a Playoff berth in that span.

Over the past 2 years, specifically, they’re 0-4 against the Buckeyes and Wolverines and 21-1 against everyone else. (The lone defeat coming in the 2023 finale, a Peach Bowl flop against Ole Miss that only further proved the point.) If all you saw of this outfit the past 2 years was a series of high-profile losses, your skepticism that it’s on the cusp of national relevance is fully warranted.

But then, Playoff-of-bust expectations among the locals are, too, and not just because the expanded CFP field lowers the bar for entry. This season also marks Year 3 for the 2022 recruiting class, which remains almost fully intact and on track to live up to its initial billing as the best class of Franklin’s tenure. Half of the projected starting lineup arrived as part of the ’22 haul, including the gem of the group, junior QB Drew Allar, a 6-5, 238-pound specimen who posted the lowest INT rate in the nation (0.5%) in his first season as a starter. The new offensive coordinator, Andy Kotelnecki, arrived straight from the miracle turnaround at Kansas. And, for what it’s worth, Michigan is off the schedule. If now’s not the time for the Lions to make their move, Franklin’s bosses will be well within their rights to look at his salary and wonder when.

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Nittany Lions at a Glance…
2023 Recap: 10-3 (7-2 Big Ten; Lost Peach Bowl; 13th AP)
Best Player: RB Nicholas Singleton
Best Pro Prospect: Edge Abdul Carter
Best Addition: WR Julian Fleming (Ohio State)
Best Name: QB Ethan Grunkemeyer
Tenured Vet: OL Sal Wormley (6th year; 26 career starts at guard)
Emerging Dude: Sophomore LB Tony Rojas

Biggest strength: Junior RBs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen are the model of a modern backfield rotation. Despite splitting touches each of the past 2 seasons, Singleton (2,206 yards) and Allen (2,038) are only the third and fourth players in Penn State history to account for 2,000+ scrimmage yards over their first 2 years on campus, joining Curtis Enis and Saquon Barkley.

Nagging concern: A glaring lack of juice from the passing game. The wideouts as a group were a no-show in all 3 losses in 2023, including the Peach Bowl, where the majority of the Lions’ 348 passing yards and 2 of their 3 passing touchdowns against Ole Miss went to backs and tight ends. The top 2 receivers, KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Dante Cephas, both portaled out with little fanfare; Julian Fleming, a former 5-star who spent 4 disappointing years at Ohio State overshadowed by future first-rounders, portaled in. Fleming and the lone holdover from last year’s main rotation, Harrison Wallace III, are being counted on to increase the voltage.

Looming question: Can the pass rush pick up where it left off? Penn State led the nation with 49 sacks in 2023, largely by committee. The nominal starters on the edge, Chop Robinson and Adisa Isaac, took their talents to the NFL Draft, where they were taken in the first and third round, respectively. But the holdovers were just as productive: Former blue-chip Dani Dennis-Sutton actually led the edge-rushing rotation in snaps, and converted linebacker Abdul Carter looked like such a natural in the spring that the mock draft circuit couldn’t resist comparing him to Micah Parsons. That’s unfair for many reasons, not least of which is the fact that Parsons didn’t fully commit to his transition from linebacker to the edge until his second year as a pro. But Carter (who already wore Parsons’ old No. 11 jersey) has embraced the comp, even working out with Parsons’ personal trainer over the summer.

He certainly passes the eye test. If the on-field results follow — still a big if, advance hype notwithstanding — he’s already being sized up for a single-digit slot in 2025.

The schedule: The opener at West Virginia is a legitimate road test the Lions would love to make look like no sweat. The real make-or-break stretch comes at midseason, in a 4-week run against USC (in L.A.), Wisconsin (in Madison), Ohio State and Washington. Taking any 3 out of those 4 keeps them on the Playoff track with a straight shot through the rest of the regular season.

The upshot: Between the wide receivers, offensive tackles and cornerbacks, there are question marks across the lineup on both sides of the ball, not to mention at kicker. But no one has ever looked at a team with 21 wins over the previous 2 seasons, a tenured, 5-star quarterback in his second year as a starter, and a manageable schedule and reserved judgment over a couple new tackles. Expectations begin with the Playoff and proceed from there.

4. Michigan

Win or lose, there was never much doubt that 2023 represented Jim Harbaugh’s last stand on campus, and with it Michigan’s best shot at a national crown for the foreseeable future. Now that they’ve got all that out of their system, the Wolverines can enjoy the hangover in relative peace. The filling of the championship void means Harbaugh’s successor, Sherrone Moore, has some time to put his stamp on the program before it starts rumbling to be fed again — a good thing, too, given a lineup that lost 18 of the 22 starters from the CFP title game along with most of the coaching staff. Not for nothing, 3 of the 4 holdovers (CB Will Johnson, DT Mason Graham and TE Colston Loveland) are arguably the best returning players in the country at their respective positions. Besides Graham, the rest of the rising talent on the d-line guarantees at least one side of the line of scrimmage will remain a strength. As for the other side, though, where an entirely rebuilt o-line is setting up shop in front of a totally untested quarterback, patience is a virtue and a luxury this program can finally afford.

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Wolverines at a Glance…
2023 Recap: 15-0 (10-0 Big Ten; Won Rose Bowl; Won CFP Championship; 1st AP)
Best Player: DL Mason Graham
Best Pro Prospect: CB Will Johnson
Best Addition: LB Jaishawn Barham (Maryland)
Best Name: RB Cole Cabana
Tenured Vet: OL Josh Priebe (5th year; 29 career starts at Northwestern)
Emerging Dude: Junior edge Derrick Moore

Biggest strength: A potentially dominant defensive front. It’s not as deep a group as last year, but the starting four remain as good as any in the college game.

Nagging concern: Nearly every other unit. The Wolverines are rebuilding everywhere, including an offensive line starting over essentially from scratch. The lone holdover among last year’s regulars, Stanford transfer Myles Hinton, opened the season as the starting right tackle but was demoted after 4 games.

Looming question: Can the new quarterback be trusted? Presumptive starter Alex Orji is the kind of wild card you rarely see anymore in a position as high-profile as QB1 at Michigan. In his first 2 seasons Orji was limited strictly to a Wildcat role, running 21 times for 123 yards and 3 TDs. He was relatively unheralded as a recruit, and has yet to attempt a real pass at the college level. (His lone official attempt, against UConn in 2022, gained 5 yards on a screen caught 4 yards behind the line of scrimmage.) He is huge, checking in at 6-3/235, and mobile. Maybe it says something about something that Michigan treated the Orji package in 2023 like a secret weapon to break out in the biggest games. Maybe not. We’ll all find out together.

The schedule: Early reality checks against Texas in Week 2 and USC in Week 4 (both in Ann Arbor) will set the tone for the rest of the year: If another CFP run is in the cards, Michigan has to win at least one of those, and potentially both. Either way, the season ultimately comes down to November tests against Oregon and, of course, Ohio State.

The upshot: Resetting the “Years Since Our Last National Championship” clock to zero lifted an enormous weight off the Wolverines’ shoulders, and just in the nick of time to beat the window slamming shut. Barring an outright collapse, Sherrone Moore probably has more to worry about from the NCAA’s ongoing investigation into the sign-stealing scandal that dominated headlines last fall than he does about delivering immediate results on the field in Year 1. (For the record, that investigation is unrelated to the recent show-cause order handed down against Jim Harbaugh for alleged recruiting violations during the pandemic, except to the extent that it could allow the NCAA to classify the program as a repeat offender.) Michigan should remain competitive, especially on defense; for now, no one is invested in anything more than that.

5. USC

The Trojans lost the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, plus their top 2 rushers, top 2 receivers, and 3/5ths of the starting o-line from an offense that averaged 41.8 points per game. But let’s be real here: No one is concerned about Lincoln Riley’s offense. As usual, the sirens going off during last year’s collapse over the second half of the season were tripped by a defense engulfed in flames. Against all odds, a unit that had been an obvious Achilles’ heel in 2022 took an even bigger step backward in ’23, limping in at 119th in total defense, 121st in scoring D and 105th in SP+. Opponents scored at least 34 points in 8 consecutive games to close the regular season, making a grim spectacle of Caleb Williams’ farewell campaign in the process.

Riley responded, inevitably, by ditching longtime coordinator Alex Grinch, hiring away 34-year-old D’Anton Lynn from rival UCLA to replace him, and overhauling the secondary via the portal. The transition to the Big Ten represents a clean slate. And if nothing else, at least there’s nowhere to go but up, right? I mean, literally … right? A merely below-average defense will keep the Trojans on the Playoff radar, but at this point even achieving mediocrity on that side of the ball is going to require a significant leap.

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Trojans at a Glance…
2023 Recap: 8-5 (5-4 Pac-12; Won Holiday Bowl)
Best Player: WR/KR Zachariah Branch
Best Pro Prospect: DL Bear Alexander
Best Addition: LB Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (Oregon State)
Best Name: DB Jarvis Boatwright
Tenured Vet: OL Jonah Monheim (6th year; 34 career starts at guard/tackle)
Emerging Dude: Redshirt junior QB Miller Moss

Biggest strength: The passing game. We could review the attrition on offense again and go through the ritual of reserving judgment on the replacements. Is that really necessary? OK, sure, the new guys still have to go out and prove it. But between Lincoln Riley’s track record of developing elite quarterbacks and Miller Moss acing his audition as QB1 in the Holiday Bowl, there is about as much certainty as there can be under the circumstances that this will remain one of the nation’s most productive attacks.

Riley has yet to preside over a less-than-prolific offense in a decade of calling plays. Moss is a former top-100 recruit in his 4th year in the program, and 5-star sophomores Zachariah Branch and Duce Robinson are on breakout watch after getting lost amid a crowded wide receiver rotation as freshmen. All the lights are green.

Nagging concern: Stopping the run. The defense stunk across the board in 2023, but it was especially putrid against the run, finishing 119th in rushing yards per game allowed, 110th in yards per carry allowed and 121st in runs of 20+ yards allowed. Excluding sacks, 9 of 13 opponents topped 200 yards on the ground. The biggest body up front, Georgia transfer Bear Alexander, is back, but the rest of the interior DL rotation will be manned by transfers and/or freshmen.

Looming question: Is the rebuilt secondary an upgrade? Coaches didn’t completely clean house in the secondary, but they did bring in 5 transfers with significant starting experience at the Power 5 level who could very well make up the first line on the depth chart. Two of the newcomers you can go ahead and pencil in as starters: Safety Kamari Ramsey and cornerback John Humphrey, both of whom followed new DC D’Anton Lynn from UCLA.

The schedule: Winning a big-ticket season opener in the expanded CFP era is not necessarily the do-or-die proposition that it has been historically, but given the way last year ended, the Sunday night opener against LSU in Las Vegas is crucial tone-setter. After that, the Trojans can set their sights on a conference lineup that serves up Michigan (in Ann Arbor), Wisconsin and Penn State in the first 4 games. By midseason, they’ll either be firmly on the Playoff track or deep in crisis mode.

The upshot: Since taking over as Oklahoma’s offensive coordinator in 2015, Riley’s offenses have averaged at least 39 points per game in 9 consecutive seasons. (The only 1 that came in a tick under 40 ppg was the one that saw him bench his starting QB at midseason for a future Heisman winner.) The variable is a defense which has ranged from “warm to the touch” to “totally engulfed.” D’Anton Lynn’s job is merely to keep the temperature at a low enough simmer that the offense doesn’t literally have to hit that number every week to have a chance.

6. Iowa

They did it: After 7 mind-numbing seasons of the Brian Ferentz Experience, diminishing returns on the scoreboard and a grassroots revolt by the fan base finally succeeded in forcing Kirk Ferentz to fire his eldest son as offensive coordinator. If only they could get the past 2 years back. After a miserable effort in 2022, the decision to leave the keys in the younger Ferentz’s hands in ’23 became the premise for the sport’s cheapest joke. Against all odds, the offense got worse, finishing dead last nationally in total offense and next-to-last in scoring, coming in a full 10 points below the contractually mandated benchmark imposed on Brian Ferentz before the season. He got his walking papers in late October, on the heels of a 12-10 loss to Minnesota, yet miraculously retained play-calling duties over the last 6 games, in which the Hawkeyes averaged 10 points and topped 15 just once.

Against that backdrop, the fact that they managed to win 10 games en route to the Big Ten West title is a grim testament to the efforts of the defense and special teams, which put in heroic work on a weekly basis. (Yes, it’s also a testament to just how low-wattage the offenses were across the West Division, and to the wisdom of scrapping divisions altogether.) Iowa failed to crack the 300-yard mark in total offense in 8 of those 10 wins, and failed to score at all in 3 of its 4 losses. A merely below average offense would have been enough to keep the team in Playoff contention through the final Saturday of the regular season. Instead, it was a punchline even in victory.

The bar could hardly be set any lower for the new OC, Tim Lester, a Rust Belt lifer with a previous stint as head coach at his alma mater, Western Michigan. Lester also has the benefit of 1) A viable starting quarterback, Cade McNamara, whose absence last year following a torn ACL in Week 5 coincided with the bottom falling out; and 2) Not sharing a last name with his boss. On the other hand, he does not have the benefit of a single established playmaker or an influx of talent via the portal. Iowa fans, scarred by years of hearing “at least it can’t get any worse” in August and watching it go downhill from there, can be forgiven if they need to see it before they believe it. But eventually the law of averages has to swing back to respectability. Right?

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Hawkeyes at a Glance…
2023 Record: 10-4 (7-3 Big Ten; Lost Citrus Bowl; 24th AP)
Best Player: LB Jay Higgins
Best Pro Prospect: DB Xavier Nwankpa
Best Addition: P Rhys Dakin (Freshman/Australia)
Best Name: FB Rusty VanWetzinga
Tenured Vet: LB Nick Jackson (6th year; 49 career starts at Iowa and Virginia)
Emerging Dude: Junior DL Aaron Graves

Biggest strength: The entire back seven on defense is as bankable as a treasury bond, but let’s single out the safeties. As a group, starters Sebastian Castro, Xavier Nwankpa and Quinn Schulte make up the best patrol unit in the country. In 2023, they ranked No. 1, No. 6 and No. 9, respectively, among Big Ten defensive backs in overall PFF grade — a feat in a loaded year for highly-graded Big Ten defensive backs.

Nagging concern: No discernible trace of explosiveness among the receivers. The top returning wideouts, Kaleb Brown and Seth Anderson, combined for a grand total of 2 touchdowns and 4 receptions of 15+ yards.

Looming question: Does a healthy Cade McNamara elevate the offense? McNamara has already secured a footnote in Big Ten history as the quarterback who helped save the Jim Harbaugh project from oblivion at Michigan, where he posted a 12-2 record as a starter in 2021. He’s had rotten luck since, enduring season-ending knee injuries each of the past 2 seasons. His early exit from the lineup last September marked the beginning of the offense’s spiral, and he remained limited in the spring; just in case, Iowa added Northwestern transfer Brendan Sullivan in May as insurance.

Locals appear to be taking the ongoing competition in preseason camp at face value, but assuming McNamara still has any ligaments left, it’s hard to imagine him getting stuck with the clipboard. Whether he raises the ceiling along with the floor is another question.

The schedule: About as favorable as it gets. The conference slate skips Oregon, Michigan, Penn State and USC, leaving an Oct. 5 trip to Ohio State as the only clearly projected loss. Of course, the line between dark horse and disappointment is always razor-thin when it comes to Iowa, but at least we should know which track the Hawkeyes are on fairly quickly based on toss-ups against Iowa State, Minnesota and Washington over the first half of the season. Take 2 of those 3, and the route to another 9- or 10-win slog through the corn stalks begins to come into view.

The upshot: It’s Iowa. The defense will be vanilla as they come and rank among the stingiest in the league. The new punter will put some inexplicable Aussie English on the ball that defies the laws of physics to prevent it from bouncing into the end zone. The offense will be … fill in the blank. Anything close to mediocrity keeps the Hawkeyes relevant well into November.

7. Wisconsin

Wisconsin kept its promise to air it out in 2023, averaging slightly more passes per game (36.1) than runs (34.9) for what I’m just going to go ahead and say was the first time in school history. (I stopped checking at 1970; pretty sure I’m safe on this one.) By Wisconsin standards, that qualifies as a full-on conversion to the Air Raid. Unfortunately, a willingness to put the ball in the air isn’t the same thing as actually being good at it: The Badgers ranked 119th nationally in yards per attempt, 108th in pass efficiency and averaged their fewest points per game (23.5) since 2004. In their 4 conference losses, they failed to top 14 points in any of them.

The initial experiment flopped, but the project forges ahead. Head coach Luke Fickell stuck by his offensive coordinator, Phil Longo, and his 21st-Century insistence on balance. Instead, the key variable in ’24 is a new quarterback, Miami transfer Tyler Van Dyke, a strapping pocket type who fits the NFL mold. With the notable exception of Russell Wilson, Wisconsin’s fate has rarely hinged on the QB, who for at least two generations was usually the exact same guy in a different jersey — a future regional vice president of sales charged with handing off, occasionally hitting the tight end on play-action, and otherwise remaining as anonymous as possible. Last year’s starter, Tanner Mordecai, was a good example of what it looks like when a generic “game manager” type is thrust into the role of franchise slinger. With Van Dyke, the Badgers hope they have the real deal.

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Badgers at a Glance…
2023 Recap: 7-6 (5-4 Big Ten; Lost Outback ReliaQuest Bowl)
Best Player: CB Ricardo Hallman
Best Pro Prospect: OL Jack Nelson
Best Addition: Edge John Pius (William & Mary)
Best Names: CB Nyzier Fourqurean… LB Angel Toombs
Tenured Vet: OL Jack Nelson (5th year; 38 starts at tackle/guard)
Emerging Dude: Redshirt sophomore OL Joe Brunner

Biggest strength: A huge, vintage Wisconsin offensive line. Both tackles, Jack Nelson and Riley Mahlman, are future pros; former Cincinnati transfers Joe Huber and Jake Renfro are 5th-year seniors with a combined 45 career starts between them on the interior; rising guards Joe Brunner and JP Benzschawel are former blue-chips who are sufficiently beefed after multiple years on campus. Whatever else has changed, the pipeline of behemoths emerging from their redshirt phase looking bears prepped for hibernation remains intact.

Nagging concern: Stopping the run. Usually a strength, the run defense was meh at best in 2023, yielding 135.1 yards per game (including sacks) on 3.8 per carry. Both of those marks were the worst at Wisconsin since 2018 by a wide margin. Two d-line starters transferred into rotational roles in the SEC; a third, James Thompson Jr., is “out indefinitely” due to a preseason injury. A pair of FCS transfers, Brandon Lane and Elijah Hills, were necessary additions just to ensure there are enough viable bodies on hand.

Looming question: Who are the playmakers? Last year’s leading receiver, Will Pauling, is back after clearly separating himself as the No. 1 target in the slot. But he’s more of a reliable underneath type than a big-play threat, with only 7 of his 73 receptions going for 20+ yards and fewer than half going for 10+ yards. The outside guys, Bryson Green and Chimere Dike, caught 49.5% of the targets aimed in their direction and combined for just 3 touchdowns. Green is in line to start again, but Dike portaled out and leading rusher Braelon Allen declared for the draft with no clear heir apparent in the backfield. The Badgers would love to see junior wideout CJ Williams, a former top-100 recruit at USC, make the leap in his second year in Madison; until it actually happens, that line may as well be fan fiction.

The schedule: The three toughest tests (Alabama, Penn State,and Oregon) are all in Madison, for what it’s worth, although the Badgers will be decisive underdogs in all three. More likely, the season will rise or fall on the road trips — all toss-ups, at USC, Rutgers, Northwestern, Iowa and Nebraska.

The upshot: Wisconsin has fielded plenty of mediocre teams over the years, but most of those teams at least had a blueprint and a clear idea of what the final product was supposed to look like. Last season was the time first in ages the Badgers seemed to lack any kind of coherent identity at all. Chalk it up to the typical growing pains of a new administration implementing its own vision. The next step in Year 2 is to make the outline of that vision legible, whether the record reflects it or not.

8. Washington

The 2024 Huskies bear no resemblance to the team that played for the national championship in ’23, on the field or the sideline: Offseason attrition included the entire coaching staff and 20 of 22 starters from the CFP title game, 10 of whom were drafted. Most of those vacancies will be filled by incoming transfers, including the quarterback (Will Rogers, from Mississippi State) and receiver (Jeremiah Hunter, Cal) tasked with replacing first-rounders Michael Penix Jr. and Rome Odunze, respectively, as well as a small platoon of reinforcements who followed new head coach Jedd Fisch from Arizona. Never say never, etc., but caveats aside, it’s safe to go ahead and say this outfit is not going to be back on the sport’s biggest stage in its first season in the Big Ten. Beyond that, just how severe the hangover will be is one of the season’s most intriguing subplots.

– – –
Huskies at a Glance…
2023 Recap: 14-1 (10-0 Pac-12; Won Sugar Bowl; Lost CFP Championship; 2nd AP)
Best Player: RB Jonah Coleman
Best Pro Prospect: CB Ephesians Prysock
Best Addition: Coleman (Arizona)
Best Names: CB Ephesians Prysock … OL Maximus McCree
Tenured Vet: QB Will Rogers (5th year; 40 career starts at Miss. State)
Emerging Dude: Junior DB Dyson McCutcheon

Biggest strength: Familiar linebackers. Seniors Carson Bruener and Alphonzo Tuputala are rank-and-file vets, not headliners. But with 10 years, 33 starts and more than 2,200 career snaps between them, they are 2 of the few holdovers with significant playing time to their credit in a Washington jersey, and the only 2 who share the same position. Their dual presence in the middle of an otherwise barely recognizable defense is one of the few remaining links to last year’s run.

Nagging concern: An inexperienced and unsettled offensive line. All 5 of last year’s o-line starters moved on, including pair of high draft picks, Troy Fautanu (first round) and Roger Rosengarten (second round). The candidates to replace them are all transfers or recovering injury casualties, none of whom has logged significant playing time at the FBS level.

Looming question: How does Will Rogers’ game translate to a new offense? Rogers smashed volume records at Mississippi State, attempting and completing more passes over the course of his MSU career than any other quarterback in SEC history by wide margins. But he never rose above the dreaded “system quarterback” label that attached to every quarterback who ever played for the late Mike Leach, and never struck fear into blue-chip SEC defenses with his arm or mobility. Rogers seriously regressed in 2023 following Leach’s sudden death the previous December, ranking near the bottom of the conference in both efficiency and Total QBR while missing more than a month to a shoulder injury.

He badly needed a fresh start in his final year of eligibility, and found one in a system that will continue to ask him to put it in the air early and often under coordinator Brennan Carroll. (Yes, Pete’s son.) Rogers has seen it all at the college level and has the muscle memory to show for it; Michael Penix Jr. he is not. If he’s being counted on to elevate the offense beyond hitting his notes from a clean pocket, that might be stretching his talent beyond its limits.

The schedule: It’s tempting to say Washington should cruise through the first 5 games ahead of an Oct. 5 visit from Michigan, but that’s taking too much for granted. How easily the Huskies manage to dispatch Washington State, Northwestern and Rutgers (or don’t) will tell us a lot about what to expect over the second half of the season. Regardless, the November gauntlet of USC, Penn State (in State College), UCLA,and Oregon (in Eugene) will define the season, one way or the other.

The upshot: “Rebuilding” doesn’t begin to describe how much has changed since we last saw the Huskies on the wrong side of the confetti drop. The uniforms are the same; otherwise, this is a completely different operation from soup to nuts. That doesn’t mean the Huskies are doomed to fall off the map. It’s more like they’re redrawing the map from scratch as they go.

9. Nebraska

Anybody left clinging to the notion of Nebraska as a sleeping giant? Lets face it, folks: The Cornhuskers are 24 years removed from their last conference championship, 12 years removed from their last Top-25 finish and 8 years removed from their last winning record, which coincided with the final year of the Obama administration.

As far as kids today are concerned, the Huskers are just another offensively challenged Midwestern outfit that can’t get over the hump in close games. They were 0-5 in 2023 in games decided by 7 points or less, running their record to an incredible 2-17 in one-score games over the past 3 years under 3 different head coaches.

At least one kid is still invested in restoring the glory days: True freshman QB Dylan Raiola, whose father Dominic was an All-American offensive lineman at Nebraska and whose uncle Donovan is the current o-line coach. At various points in his recruitment Raiola was committed to Ohio State and Georgia; his signature last December made him the first 5-star quarterback (and one of just a small handful of 5-stars at any position) to sign with Nebraska in the online rankings era. He was effectively anointed QB1 before he set foot on campus, and wasted no time justifying the title in the spring. Huskers fans don’t need to be reminded to keep their expectations in check, but they also haven’t had a quarterback who moves the needle since they scrapped the triple option.

– – –
Huskers at a Glance…
2023 Record: 5-7 (3-6 Big Ten)
Best Player: CB/KR Tommi Hill
Best Pro Prospect: Hill
Best Addition: WR Jahmal Banks (Wake Forest)
Best Name: DB Dwight Bootle II
Tenured Vet: OL Bryce Benhart (6th year; 41 career starts at tackle)
Emerging Dude: Freshman QB Dylan Raiola

Biggest strength: A fully stocked defensive line. Last year’s front returns intact, anchored by a pair of towering vets with pro potential on the interior, Nash Hutmacher and Ty Robinson. Nebraska improved dramatically in the trenches in 2023, finishing 3rd in the Big Ten in rushing defense and 9th nationally — its best finish against the run since Ndamukong Suh was wrecking shop in 2009.

Nagging concern: Chronic turnovers. Nebraska tied for dead last nationally with 31 giveaways in ’23, and ranked next-to-last with a -17 turnover margin. Turnovers are at the top of the list of “randomness” statistics that aren’t supposed to be predictive from one season to the next — or even one game to the next — but that marked the 7th consecutive season the Huskers finished in the red while losing nearly every close call along the way. Putting the ball in the hands of a freshman QB, even a touted one, is not a reassuring step toward reversing that trend.

Looming question: Is Dylan Raiola the chosen one? Singlehandedly absolving two decades’ worth of angst is a lot to put on a teenager who wasn’t even born the last time the Cornhuskers had a quarterback worth remembering, but he’s here and there’s nowhere else for it to go.

The schedule: This slate may as well have been designed for a young team to build some early momentum before things get steeper over the back half. The first 7 games are all winnable — Nebraska could plausibly be favored in all 7 — including a high-profile visit from Colorado in Week 2 that will serve as Raiola’s national introduction against the Prime Boys. After that comes the reality check: 4 of the last 5 are against Ohio State, USC, Wisconsin and Iowa, all but 1 on the road. But if the Oct. 26 trip to Columbus feels like a big one going in, the season probably already qualifies as a solid step forward.

The upshot: But the schedule is friendly enough, the hype surrounding Raiola is loud enough, and nostalgia is a hell of a drug enough to tempt one aboard the Huskers’ bandwagon. If you squint, you can make out the outline of a breakthrough somewhere off in the distance. But then, we’ve all been down this road with Nebraska enough times by now to be wary of mirages. After 7 straight losing seasons, this is an outfit just trying to get back in the black. Beyond that, buyer beware.

Saturday Tradition’s Ultimate 2024 Big Ten Preview: Welcome to the empire (3)

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10. UCLA

The Chip Kelly era at UCLA was … well, pretty much identical to every other era at UCLA since the turn of the century, yielding a 35-34 record, a single Top-25 finish, and few if any moments that registered outside of the Pacific time zone. (Late-night comeback from a 49-17 deficit at Washington State in 2019 notwithstanding.) Kelly’s Bruins, like Jim Mora’s Bruins and Karl Dorrell’s Bruins, topped out at 9 regular-season wins and 6 wins in conference play, never seriously threatening to contend for a Pac-12 title in 6 years. When Kelly announced in February that he was giving up the head-coaching grind to focus on calling the plays at Ohio State, the decision felt mutual.

His successor, 44-year-old DeShaun Foster, is Kelly’s opposite in almost every way. Whereas Kelly arrived as an outsider with well-established credentials, Foster is a young, home-grown product who prior to getting the head job had never been promoted above position coach. Instead, his credibility stems largely from his track record as a player: He was as a star running back at UCLA, a second-round draft pick in 2002, and a productive runner over several seasons in the NFL. (Foster is not the only active FBS head coach who once played in the Super Bowl — see also: Deion Sanders — but he is the only one who’s scored a touchdown in the Super Bowl.) He spent 10 of the past 11 seasons on the Bruins’ staff, serving as RB coach since 2017. Long-term, his local ties and low-key relatability are potential assets in recruiting. For now, the kind of just-getting-by campaign that would have felt like treading water under Kelly would qualify as a fine start.

– – –
Bruins at a Glance…
2023 Record: 8-5 (4-5 Pac-12; Won LA Bowl)
Best Player: WR J.Michael Sturdivant
Best Pro Prospect: Sturdivant
Best Addition: DB K.J. Wallace (Georgia Tech)
Best Name: DB D.J. Justice
Tenured Vet: OL Spencer Holstege (6th year; 44 career starts at UCLA and Purdue)
Emerging Dude: Sophomore WR Rico Flores Jr.

Biggest strength: Options at receiver. None of them set off fireworks, but UCLA does return last year’s top targets on the outside (J.Michael Sturdivant), in the slot (Logan Loya), and at tight end (Maliki Mataveo), who collectively averaged 14.1 yards per catch with 11 touchdowns. Someone from among the trio of Notre Dame transfer Rico Flores Jr., 2023 injury casualty Titus Mokiao-Atimalala, and incoming freshman Kwazi Gilmer is going to make his move opposite Sturdivant.

Nagging concern: Restocking the pass rush. The departed edge-rushing rotation of Laiatu Latu and twin brothers Grayson and Gabriel Murphy was the most productive in America. In their wake there is not a soul who has made opposing quarterbacks sweat at the major conference level. The leader in the clubhouse, Navy transfer Jacob Busic, was denied a 5th year at the Naval Academy after losing most of his senior season in 2023 to a torn bicep. The rest of the depth chart is as grim as that implies.

Looming question: Is QB Ethan Garbers more than a stopgap? Garbers has never been a full-time starter, having spent his first 4 years either redshirting (2020, at Washington), serving as a backup (’21-22), or splitting time with a touted freshman (’23). But he was UCLA’s best option last year, going 4-2 as a starter with an MVP turn in the bowl game, and with 5-star Dante Moore’s subsequent exit for Oregon he is clearly atop the depth chart in Year 5. Now, staying there with heirs apparent Justyn Martin and Dermaricus Davis waiting in the wings is another question.

The schedule: Getting off to a fast start against Hawai’i and Indiana isn’t going to get anybody excited about this team’s potential or anything, but having a couple of wins in the mental bank account is crucial ahead of a 3-game stretch against LSU (in Baton Rouge), Oregon and Penn State (in State College) that figures to make some hefty withdrawals. From there, it’s toss-ups the rest of the way leading up to a Nov. 23 date with USC that will go a long way toward setting the tone for Foster’s first full offseason.

The upshot: Expectations are lower than you’d typically expect for a name-brand program coming off 3 consecutive 8-win seasons. Promoting a relatively obscure coach to the helm of a relatively nondescript roster in a highly competitive conference will have that effect. The front-loaded schedule doesn’t help. But the talent base is stable (if uninspiring) and there’s no reason UCLA shouldn’t expect to continue to eke out a respectable middle-class existence in its new league just as well as it did in its old one. Everyone got tired of waiting for Chip Kelly to do more than that, including Kelly himself. But they certainly didn’t hire Foster to do less.

11. Maryland

Maryland has settled into a comfortable lane on Mike Locksley’s watch, finishing 7-6, 8-5 and 8-5 over the past 3 years. Before that, Maryland hadn’t even managed 2 consecutive winning seasons since 2002-03, under Ralph Friedgen. But the lane has its limits: In the same span, the Terrapins were just 1-11 against ranked opponents (as of kickoff), the lone win coming against then-No. 25 N.C. State in the 2022 Duke’s Mayo Bowl. Excluding the pandemic year, they haven’t beaten any of the 3 annual heavies on the Big Ten schedule (Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State) since 2014, Maryland’s first year in the league.

The good news: The demise of the divisional format means Michigan and Ohio State rotate off the schedule for the first time. The bad news: The Wolverines and Buckeyes are replaced in spirit by USC and Oregon, with Penn State still waiting at the end. Maryland is also embarking for the first time since 2019 with a muddled quarterback situation following the departure of the school’s all-time passing leader, Taulia Tagovailoa. A backloaded schedule does present an opportunity to take the next step, but whether the Terps are in position to seize it is TBD.

– – –
Terps at a Glance…
2023 Record: 8-5 (4-5 Big Ten; Won Music City Bowl)
Best Player: RB Roman Hemby
Best Pro Prospect: DB Dante Trader Jr.
Best Addition: CB Jalen Huskey (Bowling Green)
Best Name: OL Anthony Robsock
Tenured Vet: LB Ruben Hyppolite II (5th year; 34 career starts)
Emerging Dude: Junior WR Octavian Smith Jr.

Biggest strength: Proven commodities in the secondary. Maryland is a burgeoning pipeline for next-level defensive backs, with 4 DBs drafted in the past 3 years. Dante Trader Jr., Glendon Miller and Bowling Green transfer Jalen Huskey all have a chance to extend that streak. They combined for 10 interceptions and 17 passes broken up last season.

Nagging concern: An alarmingly thin offensive line. Only 1 player is back who logged meaningful snaps in 2023 in a Maryland uniform (Kyle Long, a part-time starter at guard), and the most seasoned of the transfers is likely out for the year due to injury. No way around it, this is the kind of unit where the highest hopes are reserved for an incoming transfer from Division II.

Looming question: Who’s the quarterback? Maryland is the only team in the conference (and one of very few in the country) holding an honest-to-god quarterback competition this offseason — between 3 candidates: Holdovers Billy Edwards Jr. and Cameron Edge, and N.C. State transfer MJ Morris. Neither Edwards nor Morris has made much impression to date in spot duty, and Edge has barely seen the field. On paper, I’d give the nod to Morris as the tentative pick; in reality, I’m a lot more confident guessing that whoever gets first crack in the opener, it won’t be the last.

The schedule: Maryland has a reputation for getting out of the blocks fast in September before running out of gas in conference play. This year the runway extends into mid-October: The Terps should expect to be favored in each of the first 6. The real tests come later, including November trips to Oregon and Penn State in the finale. If everything that can go right does, that trip to State College could be meaningful on both sides.

The upshot: For a team that has won 8 games 2 years in a row Maryland has flown well below the radar, failing to crack the AP Top 25 at any point in that span. In fact, since joining the Big Ten in 2014 the Terps have spent exactly 1 week as a ranked team, in September 2019. The backloaded schedule is an opportunity to change that, at least briefly. Actually finishing in the polls, which Maryland last managed in 2010, is going to require finally winning a game worth noticing.

12. Minnesota

PJ Fleck is 16 games over .500 in Minneapolis over 8 years, good for the best winning percentage of any Minnesota head coach since 1950. Even from the outside, though, you didn’t have to look too closely to make out some strain in the marriage in 2023. Before the season, a report by Front Office Sports cited anonymous former players who described the culture under Fleck as “toxic” and a “cult.” The season itself was the definition of uninspired: 6-7 overall, 1-5 vs. Power 5 opponents that finished with a winning record, 0-4 in November. Fleck was reportedly in the running for the UCLA opening over winter, with an anonymous Big Ten Coach dishing to Athlon that “P.J. chased UCLA and some other jobs pretty hard to get out of there.”

Take anonymous gossip for what it’s worth; the only player who went on the record in the preseason report did so to defend Fleck, while most of the initial reporting on the UCLA job implied the Bruins were the more interested party. But the record and the vibes add up to a tenure that’s gone more than a little stale. That can always change in a hurry with a rebound campaign that reminds the locals of nine-win seasons in 2021 and ’22. If it doesn’t, the buzz this time around is likely to amount to more than just rumors.

– – –
Gophers at a Glance…
2023 Record: 6-7 (3-6 Big Ten; Won Quick Lane Bowl)
Best Player: WR Daniel Jackson
Best Pro Prospect: OL Aireontae Ersery
Best Addition: QB Max Brosmer (New Hampshire)
Best Name: WR Le’Meke Brockington
Tenured Vet: WR Daniel Jackson (5th year; 38 career starts)
Emerging Dude: Sophomore RB Darius Taylor

Biggest strength: Backfield depth. The Gophers are at their best when they’re pounding the rock in mind-numbing fashion, preferably with a Mo Ibrahim-style workhorse. But the running backs were besieged by injuries in 2023, eventually forcing 5th-string walk-on Jordan Nubin to carry the load in a winless November. They’re not going to get caught shorthanded again: In addition to sophomore Darius Taylor, whose breakout freshman campaign was derailed by a leg injury, Minnesota brought in 3 established vets from Oklahoma (Marcus Major), Michigan State (Jaren Mangham) and Ohio (Sieh Bangura) to serve as insurance — already looking like a shrewd move as Taylor rehabs a gimpy hamstring that could limit him in the early going.

Nagging concern: Getting off the field. Minnesota allowed opposing offenses to convert just shy of 46% of their third-down attempts last year, worst in the Big Ten and 123rd nationally. That was a complete reversal from 2022, when the defense held opponents to a Big Ten-best 27.9% on 3rd down, and presumably one of the reasons longtime coordinator Joe Rossi suddenly felt called to make a lateral move to a conference rival, Michigan State. The law of averages suggests the number under new DC Corey Heatherman will land somewhere in the middle of the pack.

Looming question: Is Max Brosmer the answer behind center? Minnesota’s passing game bottomed out in 2023, generating 200+ yards through the air in just 2 games. (And in one of those, a 27-12 win over Michigan State, it was exactly 200 yards.) Meanwhile, Brosmer was lighting up the beleaguered secondaries of the Colonial Athletic Association, leading a New Hampshire attack that ranked in the top 10 nationally at the FCS level in both total and scoring offense. Brosmer was a consensus FCS All-American and a prized commodity in the December portal window for teams with an immediate vacancy. He showed up in the spring looking appropriately Big Ten-sized at (officially) 6-2, 225 pounds. If he hits, it changes the complexion of the Gophers’ season. If not, see last year.

The schedule: Not exactly a murderer’s row, but between North Carolina in the opener and Iowa, Michigan and USC to open the B1G slate, there’s a chance things could get out of hand by midseason. All but one of Minnesota’s Power 4 opponents matched or exceeded the Gophers’ 7-6 record in 2023 (the lone exception: Illinois), so the process of staying in the black themselves promises to be a week-by-week grind.

The upshot: How many wins does Fleck need to secure a 9th year in 2025? Assuming that number is higher than 6, I’m not sure there’s a route to hitting it against this schedule without either running the table in a half-dozen toss-up games or springing a couple minor (or major) upsets. Regardless, barring some dramatic development, it’s an open question whether either side still has any interest in sticking it out for a full decade.

13. Rutgers

Slowly but surely, the reboot of the Greg Schiano era at Rutgers is beginning to resemble the original run. When he returned to campus in 2020, Schiano found a down-and-out program languishing on the same scrapheap he’d rescued it from nearly two decades earlier. The first time around, it took 5 years to deliver a winning record, which he finally did in 2005. This time, he got there in Year 4, turning in a 7-6 finish in 2023 — Rutgers’ first season in the black since 2014.

The big difference between now and then is that it’s much harder to imagine the Scarlet Knights taking the next step in the Big Ten than it ever was in the old Big East. In Schiano’s first tenure, they followed up their .500 campaign in 2005 with an 11-2 breakthrough in ’06 — arguably the best season in school history — then went on to post at least 8 wins in 4 of the next 5 seasons before Schiano left for the NFL. Even against a favorable schedule, circling 8 potential wins for an outfit that has yet to finish better than 3-6 in B1G play in a decade in the conference is a stretch. Even if the current rebuild tops out in the Pinstripe Bowl, though, that’s still a heck of a journey from where it started.

– – –
Scarlet Knights at a Glance…
2023 Record: 7-6 (3-6 Big Ten; Won Pinstripe Bowl)
Best Player: RB Kyle Monangai
Best Pro Prospect: Monangai
Best Addition: WR Dymere Miller (Monmouth)
Best Name: DL Tycoolhill Luman … WR Gunnison Bloodgood
Tenured Vet: OL Hollin Pierce (5th year; 37 career starts at tackle)
Emerging Dude: Redshirt sophomore LB Moses Walker

Biggest strength: A well-seasoned secondary. Rutgers lost its best player on the back end, cornerback Max Melton, who went 43rd overall in the draft — the highest position for any Rutgers player since 2010. But the holdovers have played a ton: Returning starters Robert Longerbeam, Shaquan Loyal, Desmond Igbinosun and Michael “Flip” Dixon are all 4th- and 5th-year vets who have logged more than 1,000 career snaps apiece. Per PFF, all four easily finished “in the green” in 2023, posting overall grades in the 70s.

Nagging concern: Quarterback, as usual. The search for a Big Ten-caliber starter behind center has officially entered its second decade. Last year’s starter, Gavin Wimsatt, never came close to justifying his 4-star billing as a recruit and transferred into a backup role at Kentucky. Next up: Minnesota transfer Athan Kaliakmanis, who underwhelmed over the course of 17 career starts as a Gopher. Kaliakmanis was voted a team captain in the spring, but if he struggles to move the needle don’t be surprised if at some point coaches decide to give true freshman AJ Surace a head start on winning the job in 2025.

Looming question: Is Dymere Miller a difference-maker? At Monmouth, Miller led all FCS wideouts in 2023 in receiving yards (1,298) and overall PFF grade (92.1), earning unanimous All-America honors in the process. More than a quarter of that total came in a single game, a 333-yard bonanza against New Hampshire that stood as the best single-game receiving output of the season for all of Division I. On film, Miller routinely made FCS defenders look like they were running at 3/4 speed. At Rutgers, he has a chance to lend some semblance of explosiveness to an offense that has sorely lacked it for years.

The schedule: Well, at least a 2-0 start is assured vs. Howard and Akron. From that point on, every week is a battle. The Knights have the benefit of missing all 4 of the Big Ten’s heaviest hitters — Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State and Michigan — which no other team can say. On the other hand, they also miss potentially winnable matchups against Indiana, Purdue and Northwestern. As I see it, Rutgers projects as at least a slight underdog in every conference game, as well as a Week 3 trip to Virginia Tech. They should still win a couple of those at random, but good luck guessing which ones.

The upshot: An improving team that is going to have a very hard time improving on last year’s record. The overall talent level remains near the bottom of the conference, the quarterback position remains an albatross, and the best player on defense just tore his ACL. Most weekends, staying the course is going to amount to keeping the margins competitive.

14. Indiana

The Hoosiers made one of the shrewder hires of the last cycle by locking up Curt Cignetti, a Nick Saban protégé who most recently presided over a 52-9 record as head coach at James Madison. Cignetti immediately got to work converting Bloomington into JMU West: Of the 31 incoming transfers on campus, 13 are former JMU starters who followed their coach to his new job, including 6 who were first- or second-team All-Sun Belt picks in 2023.

Why not? Cignetti’s Dukes might not have been brimming with Big Ten talent, but they were a better-run outfit than Indiana under the departed Tom Allen, whose brief glimpse of pandemic-era optimism turned out to be a cruel mirage. Since their 6-2 COVID campaign in 2020, the Hoosiers are 3-24 in Big Ten play with last-place finishes in 2021 and ’23. Short of stumbling upon the second coming of Michael Penix Jr., starting over from scratch with an almost entirely new starting lineup is as good an idea as any.

– – –
Hoosiers at a Glance…
2023 Record: 3-9 (1-8 Big Ten)
Best Players: WRs Elijah Sarratt and Donaven McCulley
Best Pro Prospect: Sarratt
Best Additions: Sarrat (JMU) … QB Kurtis Rourke (Ohio)
Best Name: RB Solomon Vanhorse
Tenured Vet: OL Mike Katic (6th year; 37 career starts at guard)
Emerging Dude: Sophomore CB D’Angelo Ponds

Biggest strength: A significantly upgraded cast at the skill positions. Last year’s leading receiver, 6-5 converted QB Donaven McCulley, is back after an eye-opening turn in his first season as a wideout; otherwise, almost everyone who touches the ball will be new, and almost certainly improved. That list includes the new quarterback, future Canadian League legend Kurtis Rourke, who got the call-up for his final season of eligibility after a decorated MAC career at Ohio U. But the highest expectations are reserved for JMU transfer Elijah Sarratt, another big body who went off for 1,199 yards and eight touchdowns in his lone season there. Per PFF’s “contested catches” column, McCulley and Sarratt hauled in a combined 26 catches in traffic in 2023 on 36 attempts.

Nagging concern: Despite hefty career snap counts the offensive line remains marginal by B1G standards. The rebuilding effort up front took a big hit when projected starter Nick Kidwell — yet another JMU transfer — went down with a season-ending injury in preseason camp.

Looming question: Does the rebuilt d-line move the needle? Indiana ranked dead last in conference play in ’23 in both total and scoring defense, thanks in part to a bone-dry pass rush. Incoming transfers Mikail Kamara (JMU), James Carpenter (JMU) and CJ West (Kent State) all put up impressive havoc stats and fat PFF grades at their previous stops. Just how much of that translates to the Big Ten will go a long way toward setting the tone for the entire unit.

The schedule: Plenty of opportunities to build some momentum over the first half of the season until the going gets steeper down the stretch. The Hoosiers should get out of September with at least 3 wins against a pushover nonconference slate; finding 3 more against some combination of Maryland, Northwestern, Nebraska, Michigan State and Purdue is the challenge.

The upshot: No big-time program wants to rebrand itself as a premier destination for the Group of 5 All-Stars, but a one-time infusion for a mostly bereft roster has a chance to pay off right away. The lineup is arguably better on paper than it has been the past 3 years at every position. Whether that translates in the Big Ten standings is an open question. For now, just climbing out of the basement in a Year Zero situation would qualify as progress enough.

15. Illinois

As a rule Illinois football has a reputation as a powerful sedative. Not in 2023: The Illini lived on the edge, playing 8 games decided by a touchdown or less — including all 5 of their wins — and 6 games in which the lead changed hands in the final minute of regulation. That is just way too much spice for this part of the country. Midwestern dads recuperating from their morning errands can still safely nap through the first 58, but if it’s a close one, take advantage of the new 2-minute warning to make sure the blood-pressure pills are within arm’s reach.

– – –
Fighting Illini at a Glance…
2023 Record: 5-7 (3-6 Big Ten)
Best Player: OL J.C. Davis
Best Pro Prospect: JC Davis
Best Most Intriguing Addition: WR Zakhari Franklin (Ole Miss)
Best Name: DL Gentle Hunt
Tenured Vet: Edge Seth Coleman (6th year; 31 career starts)
Emerging Dude: Sophomore RB Kaden Feagin

Biggest strength: An enormous and experienced o-line bolstered by a couple of incoming transfers at tackle, JC Davis (New Mexico) and Melvin Priestly (Grambling). The 6-5, 320-pound Davis was a first-team All-Mountain West pick in 2023 while posting the best overall PFF grade (83.7) of any tackle in the Group of 5 conferences.

Nagging concern: Filling the void on the interior d-line left by a pair of outgoing starters, Jer’Zhan Newton and Keith Randolph Jr. Newton was the most disruptive interior presence in the country over the past 2 seasons, and decorated accordingly, going out in ’23 as a consensus All-American and Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year. Into the breach: Transfers and underclassmen, none of them distinguished.

Looming question: Is there a difference-maker at wideout? Both of last year’s top targets, Isaiah Williams (a first-team All-B1G pick) and Casey Washington (a 6th-round draft pick), are gone. But there are options: Senior Pat Bryant flashed WR1 potential while manning the third starting role the past 2 seasons, and incoming transfer Zakhari Franklin was one of the splashier names in the summer portal window despite barely seeing the field in 2023 at Ole Miss. Prior to last year’s no-show in the SEC — which was at least partly due to an offseason injury that lingered into the season, eventually resulting in a redshirt — Franklin was a hidden gem at UT-San Antonio, where he racked up 3,348 yards and 37 touchdowns from 2019-22. He remains the active FBS leader in career receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. His move to Illinois reunites him with chief play-caller Barry Lunney Jr., who was Franklin’s offensive coordinator for 2 of his 4 seasons at UTSA. The best possible version of this offense is one where Franklin is back in Roadrunner form.

The schedule: Four of the first 8 games are against currently-ranked opponents (Kansas, Penn State, Michigan and Oregon), but the rest are winnable. The closing stretch against Minnesota, Michigan State, Rutgers and Northwestern is an opportunity for a very productive November with Bret Bielema’s job potentially on the line.

The upshot: OK, fine, barring an outright collapse, it’s debatable whether Bielema’s job is on the line. Illinois’ 8-5 finish in 2022, its first winning season in a decade, bought him enough goodwill to weather a couple of down years. Still, the whiff of impending staleness in Year 4 is one every coach wants to avoid. To keep the speculation at bay, a shot at finishing in the black against a manageable schedule is one he can’t afford to miss.

16. Michigan State

Michigan State effectively pulled the plug on the 2023 campaign after just 2 games, firing coach Mel Tucker — and, crucially, voiding his albatross of a contract — over allegations of sexual harassment. (Tucker filed a wrongful termination suit against the university earlier this summer.) With that, a team already saddled with low expectations bottomed out. The Spartans went 2-8 following Tucker’s dismissal, getting outscored by 20 points per game in the process.

The new coach, Jonathan Smith, arrived in December on the heels of a slow but ultimately successful rebuild at his alma mater, Oregon State. Just as important, he brought along his most prized recruit, sophomore QB Aidan Chiles, who enrolled in January with hype intact and no serious competition for the starting job. No one in East Lansing is expecting an overnight turnaround (or shouldn’t be, anyway), but given how the last administration played out even the promise of better things to come just over the next hill qualifies as progress.

– – –
Spartans at a Glance…
2023 Record: 4-8 (2-7 Big Ten)
Best Player: OL Tanner Miller
Best Pro Prospect: TE Jack Velling
Best Additions: Miller (Oregon State) … Velling (Oregon State) … QB Aidan Chiles (Oregon State)
Best Name: DB Lejond Cavazos
Tenured Vet: LB Cal Haladay (5th year; 35 career starts)
Emerging Dude: Sophomore QB Aidan Chiles

Biggest strength: Beavers to the rescue. In addition to Chiles, Smith brought along a couple of less splashy but more accomplished vets from Oregon State, tight end Jack Velling and center Tanner Miller, who were both second-team All-Pac-12 picks in 2023. They joined a roster that didn’t have a single player voted first-, second-, or third-team All-Big Ten by league coaches.

Nagging concern: Running the dang ball. The Spartans ranked last in the Big Ten and 127th nationally in rushing offense, averaging a pathetic 2.9 yards per carry. They managed a single rushing touchdown in conference play, in a midseason loss at Rutgers. It can’t get much worse, even if the personnel is not obviously much better.

Looming question: Is Aidan Chiles as good as advertised? As a recruit, Chiles was a late riser due in part to a broken wrist in his junior season, and not nearly as hyped by the recruiting sites as classmates Arch Manning, Nico Iamaleava, et al. But he started generating blue-chip-caliber buzz almost as soon as he enrolled at Oregon State, and reinforced it in a handful of cameos last year off the bench, accounting for seven touchdowns with no interceptions in only 100 snaps. The Spartans are not devoid of playmakers — including rising sophomore Antonio Gates Jr., who I’m obligated to mention here under Sportswriters of a Certain Age regulations — and if Chiles is a hit the offense could be one of the conference’s most pleasant surprises.

The schedule: Any realistic shot at bowl eligibility hinges on taking 1 of 2early road tests at Maryland and Boston College. From there, the priority is just getting through a demoralizing midseason stretch against Ohio State, Oregon, Iowa and Michigan healthy and hale enough to take advantage of a much more manageable November.

The upshot: Jonathan Smith made chicken salad at Oregon State, but he didn’t do it overnight. His first team at OSU finished 2-10, and he didn’t deliver a winning record until Year 4. The portal speeds up that timeline, especially when a QB prospect like Aidan Chiles is part of the same package as his coach. But this remains a classic long-term rebuild.

17. Northwestern

Few professions are more unpredictable than coaching big-time college football, and no coach in America had a more unpredictable 2023 than David Braun. Hired as Northwestern’s defensive coordinator in January, Braun was abruptly elevated to interim head coach in July amid a hazing scandal that resulted in Pat Fitzgerald’s ouster from the job after 17 years. By November, he was entrenched, promoted to the full-time role in the course of leading an outmanned outfit with a 4-20 record over the previous two seasons to a surprise 8-5 finish. The Wildcats ended the year on a 4-game winning streak, clinching Braun’s arc from obscurity to Big Ten Coach of the Year.

Now, sustaining any kind of success at Northwestern in the portal era is a bigger challenge than it is anywhere else in the Big Ten for the same reasons that generating success at Northwestern has always been a bigger challenge in the first place. The academic ceiling that limits who the Wildcats can pursue in traditional recruiting also limits who they can pursue on the transfer market, forcing them to maintain a relatively static talent base while the rest of the league works to upgrade at any cost. (See also: Stanford.) This reality was already sinking in under Fitzgerald before he was shown the door. Under Braun, Northwestern added just 6 transfers in the ’24 cycle, tied for fewest in the conference outside of Iowa, none of them likely difference-makers. There are benefits to stability. But if the developmental model continues to yield winning records in the current landscape it might be an even bigger miracle than the one he pulled off in Year 1.

– – –
Wildcats at a Glance…
2023 Record: 8-5 (5-4 Big Ten; Won Las Vegas Bowl)
Best Player: LB Xander Mueller
Best Pro Prospect: Mueller
Best Addition: QB Mike Wright (Mississippi State)
Best Name: DL Najee Story
Tenured Vet: LB Xander Mueller (5th year; 25 career starts)
Emerging Dude: Redshirt junior CB Ore Adeyi

Biggest strength: Cromulent receivers. Northwestern enjoyed a respectable passing game in 2023 for the first time in ages. The leading target, Cam Johnson, ran out of eligibility, but holdovers Bryce Kurtz and AJ Henning combined for 1,315 scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns. Henning, especially, is due for a more prominent role: The former Michigan transfer is a dynamo in space, a threat on jet sweeps, and possibly the only guy on the roster capable of making opposing coaches sweat.

Nagging concern: An overmatched offensive line. The Wildcats allowed a Big Ten-worst 51 sacks and 91 tackles for loss in 2023 with alarming PFF grades across the board. None of the incoming transfers projects as an upgrade, if they even crack the lineup.

Looming question: Who’s the quarterback? Northwestern has trotted out a different opening-day starter in 5 consecutive seasons and is about to make it 6. The frontrunner is a transfer, 5th-year vet Mike Wright, who arrived over the summer with a 3-9 record as a starter vs. Power 5 opponents at his previous stops, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. Wright has never been a full-time starter, but 2 of those 3 entries in the win column are still Vandy’s only victories in SEC play in the past 4 years. The alternative is either 6th-year senior Ryan Hilinski, a former recruiting bust who is now mentioned mainly on listicles of guys you can’t believe are somehow still playing college football, or one of a pair of underclassmen (Jack Lausch and Aidan Gray) who have yet to see meaningful action.

The schedule: None of Northwestern’s 7 home games this season figure to be as interesting as the backdrop. With a new stadium under construction on the same site as the old stadium, the Wildcats are hosting most of their home dates over the next 2 years at a temporary stadium built around the university’s on-campus soccer and lacrosse fields on the banks of Lake Michigan. The makeshift venue is expected to hold 15,000 — many of them in newly constructed seats in the end zones — and boasts an essentially open view of the lake beyond a small set of bleachers on the north sideline.

12 days until @NUFBFamily Kickoff!

First view from last row (62) of North Grandstand.

Unreal views of Lake Michigan, Chicago Skyline and Northwestern Campus!

🏈🏟️🎟️🌇 pic.twitter.com/hgi4KgnAO5

— Jesse Marks (@Jessehmarks) August 19, 2024

That will suffice for the first 5 games, including in-conference visits from Indiana and Wisconsin. For the last 2, against Ohio State and Illinois, the setting will shift to Chicago’s Wrigley Field, a surreal venue for football in its own right. The field barely fits in there!

The upshot: Braun banked enough goodwill in 2023 to get him through a few lean years if necessary, but this is no time to get complacent. Six wins is well within reach, along with Northwestern’s first back-to-back bowl bids since 2017-18. Every opportunity to finish in the black in Evanston is a good one.

18. Purdue

Nobody had much idea what to expect from Purdue in 2023, and we still don’t: Coming off a nondescript, 4-8 campaign under first-year head coach Ryan Walters, the Boilermakers are as lacking in a coherent identity as any team in the league. Walters, 38, made his reputation on defense, specifically as coordinator of the nation’s No. 1 scoring defense in 2022 at Illinois. But Purdue fielded arguably the Big Ten’s worst defense in ’23, finishing last in points allowed. The offense was a basket-case, averaging 42.7 points in its 3 conference wins while failing to top 17 points in any of its 6 conference losses. The best players on both sides of the ball, WR Deion Burks and edge rusher Nic Scourton, transferred out at the first opportunity.

The offseason news wasn’t all bad: Walters did manage to secure an infusion of talent via both the traditional recruiting class and the portal, more than doubling the number of players on the roster who were 4-star recruits. (He targeted refugees from Georgia, in particular, signing four underclassmen in search of a reset after being dealt a cold dose of reality at UGA.) Still, virtually none of the newcomers have made a dent at the FBS level, and in an increasingly up-or-out business the window for conjuring up a sense of momentum closes faster now than ever. Year 2 is a crucial one for setting a course for Walters’ tenure.

– – –
Boilermakers at a Glance…
2023 Record: 4-8 (3-6 Big Ten)
Best Player: DB Dillon Thieneman
Best Pro Prospect: Edge Kydran Jenkins
Best Addition: CB Nyland Green (Georgia)
Best Names: Edge Shitta Sillah … WR De’Nylon Morrissette
Tenured Vet: OL Gus Hartwig (5th year; 36 career starts at center)
Emerging Dude: Redshirt junior LB Yanni Karlaftis

Biggest strength: A legit pass rush. There is no replacing Nic Scourton, who led the Big Ten in sacks in 2023 and immediately peaced out to his hometown school, Texas A&M. But the other edge, Kydran Jenkins, was productive in his own right, generating a Big Ten-best 50 QB pressures despite dropping into coverage nearly as often as he rushed on passing downs, per PFF. The Boilermakers also added a couple of intriguing edge rushers via the portal — one from a premium program (Georgia’s CJ Madden) and one whose origins are about as obscure as they come: Jireh Ojata, who spent 4 dominant seasons on the D-III level at nearby Franklin College. Ojata has NFL-ready size and 1 final year of eligibility to make a name for himself against serious competition.

Nagging concern: A dearth of weapons on offense. Purdue lost their only notable playmakers, Tyrone Tracy and Deion Burks, to the draft and the portal, respectively, as well as everyone else who had at least 20 receptions. The receivers are basically starting over from scratch with portal additions CJ Smith (Georgia) and Kam Brown (UCLA) at the top.

Looming question: Are the new cornerbacks up to snuff? Corner was a sore spot last year for a unit that ranked last in the Big Ten in scoring defense. The projected starters, Nyland Green (Georgia) and Kyndrich Breedlove (Colorado by way of Ole Miss) are reclamation projects; the guy the Boilermakers would really love to see emerge is true freshman Tarrion Grant, a top-100 overall prospect who chose Purdue over the likes of Alabama, Michigan, Oregon and Tennessee. At 6-3, he has “future prospect” written all over him.

The schedule: All things considered, the toughest in the league. Purdue is the only team that drew Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon in the conference slate; it’s also the only team likely to be an underdog in multiple nonconference games, against Notre Dame in Week 2 and Oregon State (in Corvallis) in Week 3. There are winnable games in November (Northwestern, Michigan State, Indiana) but by that point the season might be a lost cause. It’s possible that after the opener against Indiana State the Boilermakers won’t be favored again the rest of the year.

The upshot: I’m not really getting doormat vibes from this roster, at least on paper. But then, I’m not getting them from any of the other would-be basement-dwellers, either. Somebody has to occupy this spot, and given the combination of the schedule and the uncertainty across the lineup the Boilers draw the short straw here. I suppose that in the post-realignment, post-portal landscape, even the notion of what a last-place team looks like has to be constantly revised upward.

* * * * * * *

The Players

Saturday Tradition’s Ultimate 2024 Big Ten Preview: Welcome to the empire (4)

Most Valuable Player: Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel

Yes, Gabriel is still in school, and yes, he’s played a lot of football for a guy who still has a year of eligibility to burn. In fact, no other returning quarterback has started more games, taken more snaps, or thrown for more yards or touchdowns at the FBS level. Over 5 seasons at UCF and Oklahoma (including the free COVID year in 2020 and a medical redshirt in ’21), Gabriel’s career totals rank 7th all-time in total yards and 4th in total touchdowns, leaving him within plausible striking distance of breaking both marks in Year 6. With 125 career TD passes to his credit, Case Keenum’s NCAA record of 155 TD passes also is well within reach.

Of course, Oregon didn’t recruit him to break records. It recruited him to take the baton cleanly from Bo Nix, whose hyper-efficient output over the past 2 seasons set a high bar for whoever came next. In many ways Gabriel profiles as a slightly smaller version of Nix, who also brought a lot of prior experience to the job — Nix left with an FBS-record 61 career starts, another mark Gabriel (49 starts) has in his sights — and also profiled as more of a well-rounded technician than a primo athlete. Beyond the volume stats, Gabriel ranked No. 3 among Power 5 quarterbacks in Total QBR in 2023, behind only Nix and Jayden Daniels; he’s the only returning QB in the country who ranked in the top 20 each of the past 2 years.

On the other hand, Gabriel is unlikely to follow Nix as a high draft pick, if only due to his marginal height. But if that winds up being the biggest difference between them, the Ducks should feel like they got their money’s worth.

Offensive Player of the Year: Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson

Henderson was a star pretty much from the moment he set foot at Ohio State, arriving with 5-star hype and breaking free on a 70-yard touchdown reception in his first game. He accounted for 1,560 yards and 19 touchdowns as a freshman, breaking OSU records set by Maurice Clarett. Since then, the only question has been keeping him on the field. His 2022 campaign was derailed by a broken foot; in 2023, an undisclosed injury cost him 3 games at midseason, significantly curbing his output in a season in which he averaged 115.5 scrimmage yards in the 10 games he played.

TreVeyon Henderson pic.twitter.com/GjKS4EasKb

— Mr. Ohio (@MrOH1O) July 28, 2024

It’s possible to view the offseason addition of Quinshon Judkins as a threat to Henderson’s chances of going out on a monster senior year. Judkins will certainly siphon his fair share of carries. But then, that’s largely the point: Beyond the “thunder and lightning” dynamic, limiting wear and tear on Henderson makes it more likely he’ll be available at full speed in the games that will define Ohio State’s season in November, December and January. (Ditto for Judkins, who’s already got a full career’s worth of mileage on his odometer after a couple of high-volume seasons at Ole Miss.)

The Buckeyes are hugely invested in this season, from Ryan Day’s job security to a decorated senior class determined to beat Michigan and play for a national title before it moves on. Their primary big-play threat is an essential piece of the equation. Doing everything they can to ensure he’s there when it counts is just good business.

Defensive Player of the Year: Michigan CB Will Johnson

If it doesn’t exactly seem like Johnson is leaping off the screen when you tune into the Wolverines, there’s a good reason for that: Opponents tend to give him as few opportunities to appear on it as possible. Nothing good is likely to come of it if they do. Long, smooth, intelligent and fearless, he’s as close as you’re going to get to a true “shutdown corner” in the modern college game.

Will Johnson.

CB1 in 2025.
pic.twitter.com/a8FzsQAvEK

— Max Chadwick (@MaxChadwickCFB) November 25, 2023

Johnson faced just 37 targets in 2023, intercepted 4 of them, and didn’t allow a touchdown at his expense. In Michigan’s 4 biggest games down the stretch — vs. Penn State, Ohio State, Alabama and Washington — opposing QBs were a meager 6-for-18 for 104 yards in his direction, the vast majority of that number coming via Marvin Harrison Jr. (And much of it coming on a single absurd catch). Bama hardly bothered testing him; Penn State and Washington managed long gains of 8 and 11 yards, respectively. If your only realistic chance to get one over on this guy is to be arguably the most NFL-ready wide receiver of your generation, well, good luck with that.

Most Exciting Player: USC WR/KR Zachariah Branch

The gem of USC’s 2023 recruiting class, Branch made an instant splash last August by accounting for 232 all-purpose yards and 2 touchdowns in his college debut, a Week Zero romp over San José State. That was the high-water mark: Stuck in a crowded rotation and slowed by a mid-season injury, Branch’s impact over the course of the season was largely limited to screen passes on offense and whatever opportunities opponents were foolish enough to give him in the return game. Still, those handful of touches continued to offer glimpses of his Xavier Worthy-esque potential. He finished No. 2 nationally in punt return yards, and as the only player to take both a punt and kickoff return to the house.

Zachariah Branch is as quick as they come ⚡️

USC is up big on Stanford, 28-0 in the second quarter.

🎥 @CFBNFOXpic.twitter.com/sI1YceFXno

— The Athletic CFB (@TheAthleticCFB) September 10, 2023

In Year 2, Branch is healthy, the path to the top of the depth chart is clear, and expectations are intact. The only hurdles to a breakthrough are a) getting in sync with a new quarterback, and b) remaining in one piece at 5-10, 175 pounds.

Fat Guy of the Year: Michigan DL Mason Graham

Michigan lists Graham at 6-3, 320 pounds, but if we’re really being honest, he qualifies as a “fat guy” strictly in the spiritual sense. In fact, to a certain type of fan, he might be better qualified for “Most Exciting.” When his motor is revved, his presence is akin to a live grenade, routinely blowing up opposing blocking schemes even when the scheme is specifically designed to neutralize his impact.

Mason Graham Cut-Up

Such an explosive and natural athlete at 3-tech, yeah there are length concerns but if his name is called 1.1 next year after some more development I wouldn't be surprised. pic.twitter.com/Y8ZBhmuvKj

— DeanoTalksSports (@DeanTrombino) July 22, 2024

Graham is 1 of 4 returning interior DL nationally who earned PFF grades of 80+ against the run and pass in 2023, and the only one whose overall grade cracked the 90s.

Like any big man worth his salt, though, his conventional output on paper (29 QB pressures, 28 stops, 7.5 TFLs, 3 sacks) paled in comparison to the sheer number of bodies he left strewn in his wake. As the heart and soul of the only remotely intact unit from last year’s CFP run, his value to Michigan’s trench-based identity cannot be overstated.

Breakout Player, Offense: USC QB Miller Moss

A much easier call today than anyone could have predicted as of last December. Although he spent 2 years as Caleb Williams’ primary backup, Moss was never the obvious choice for heir apparent — that title was usually reserved for Malachi Nelson, a blockbuster recruit who redshirted in his first year on campus. By the time the Holiday Bowl rolled around, though, Williams had opted out, Nelson had made a stunning exit via the portal, and Moss was the last man standing. He proceeded to ace his audition, bombing Louisville for 372 yards and a school-record 6 touchdowns in a 42-28 win, a high note for a team coming that lost 5 of its last 6 to close the regular season.

Miller Moss will be a Top 3 QB in the Big 10 Next Season pic.twitter.com/oX1baC1XgV

— LA (@LASportsFanatic) January 27, 2024

Lincoln Riley made a point of staging an open competition in the spring between Moss and UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava, strictly to avoid handing the job over to Moss without putting him through his paces; there was never any real doubt who was next in line. (Riley made it official last week, on the same day that Malachi Nelson’s new team, Boise State, confirmed that Nelson would not be starting for the Broncos.) In fact, given Riley’s impeccable track record with quarterbacks — 3 Heisman winners turned No. 1 overall draft picks since 2017, plus a Heisman runner-up turned Super Bowl starter in Jalen Hurts — consigning his new protégé to the “breakout” column is arguably selling Moss’ ceiling short. And given Riley’s abysmal track record on defense, bouncing back from last year’s debacle is almost certainly going to require him to prove it.

Breakout Player, Defense: Michigan Edge Derrick Moore

Michigan pressured quarterbacks by committee in 2023, splitting snaps and sacks equally among 4 full-time edge rushers. The nominal starters, Braiden McGregor and Jaylen Harrell, both moved on. That leaves Moore, a former top-100 recruit entering his third year in the program, and fellow bookend Josaiah Stewart to assume more prominent roles under a new defensive coordinator, Don “Wink” Martindale. (Yes, like the old game-show host.) Neither projects as the second coming of Aidan Hutchinson, but then with Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant bringing the heat on the interior, they don’t have to be. As long as they stay the course, the d-line will remain the strength of a team hitting reset at nearly other position.

Most Valuable Transfer: Ohio State DB Caleb Downs

Downs has only played 1 season of college football, but already qualifies as a decorated vet. A Day 1 starter at Alabama, he led the Tide in 2023 in both defensive snaps and tackles while flashing his 5-star ceiling in versatile fashion: A pair of interceptions; a forced fumble; an 85-yard house call on his first career punt return; and plain old feats of “my God, a freshman” strength.

Caleb Downs takes on 2 blockers & gets the TFL, doesn’t make sense how good he is already pic.twitter.com/mpIRJcT0UZ

— Ethan 🐘 (@TideOnTop_) November 28, 2023

Downs finished as the SEC’s highest-graded safety per PFF and a first-team all-conference pick per league coaches, neither of which was strictly necessary to make him the most sought-after player in the portal when he put his name in following Nick Saban’s retirement. The Buckeyes won the sweepstakes, instantly upgrading a position where they haven’t had a player drafted in the first 3 rounds since 2017. (A drought by Ohio State standards; draft gaps in Columbus are measured in of dog years.) He won’t be eligible until 2026, by which point he’ll be the college DB equivalent of Yoda.

Rookie of the Year: Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith

There are no official records for preseason hype, but Smith is testing the outer limits of just how high the meter goes for a freshman who has yet to take his first college snap. The build-up has left no box unchecked: The recruiting sites rated him as the consensus No. 1 overall prospect in the 2024 class; he joined a program with a well-established reputation for cranking out All-Americans and first-round draft picks at his position on an annual basis; he enrolled in January boasting an ideal frame at 6-3, 215 pounds; and he started going viral from pretty much the moment he set foot on campus.

Jeremiah Smith has only been at Ohio State for 3 months, and he already has a highlight tape. pic.twitter.com/3jm8t3VSqK

— Mr. Ohio (@MrOH1O) April 13, 2024

Yeah, we’re talking about practice. We’re also talking about a blue-chip wideout at Ohio State and all that goes with that. Unlike any of his predecessors in the OSU wide receiver pipeline, Smith looks like a lock to start from Day 1 — a feat that eluded Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka, none of whom earned their first start until Year 2 — and not for lack of competition. Besides Egbuka, there’s also a pair of rising sophomores from the 2023 class, Carnell Tate and Brandon Inniss, who were due to make their move according to the usual timeline. The Buckeyes have proven repeatedly under Ryan Day that they can accommodate multiple stars at the position while making sure everyone gets fed. (Albeit with Justin Fields and CJ Stroud pulling the trigger; with Will Howard, TBD.) But whatever the schedule said before Smith came aboard, he’s quickly proved to be the kind of talent who wrecks the curve.

Late Bloomer of the Year: Penn State WR Julian Fleming

Four years ago, Fleming was the Next Big Thing at Ohio State, arriving in Columbus as the No. 1 receiver and No. 3 overall player in the 2020 class. He portaled out last winter as an expendable vet whose time had passed. Although he started every game the past 2 seasons, Fleming never escaped the shadow of his higher-profile teammates at the top of the rotation, finishing 4th on the team in receptions both years. His production declined significantly from 2022 to ’23, when he averaged 10.4 yards on 26 catches and didn’t find the end zone.

At Penn State, he has a fresh start in an offense desperate for a playmaker. The Nittany Lions were positively juiceless last year in their losses to Ohio State and Michigan, and let both of their top 2 wideouts (KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Dante Cephus) transfer with little fanfare. Fleming, a Pennsylvania native, is just as desperate in his final year of eligibility to prove that his underwhelming tenure as a Buckeye said more about the rest of the depth chart than it did about him. Locals on the Penn State beat didn’t see it in the spring, but another year as a mere role player would be a disappointment for everyone involved.

Most Underrated: Iowa DB Sebastian Castro

Big Ten coaches snubbed Castro from the postseason all-conference team in 2023, relegating him to the “honorable mention” line in a highly competitive year for defensive backs. But he played as big a role as anyone in Iowa’s defensively-driven run to the conference championship game, doing a little bit of everything from his nickel role while rarely coming off the field. He was impeccable in coverage, picking off 3 passes, breaking up 8 more, and posting the top PFF coverage grade of any Big Ten defender; he was also solid against the run, finishing 3rd on the team in tackles and tied for 2nd in TFLs. He scored on a pick-six, forced a fumble that resulted in a safety, and won his fair share of collisions.

The #Chargers have a scout watching the Iowa vs Northwestern game.
CB Cooper Dejean has most of the draft attention for Iowa, but do not sleep on Safety Sebastian Castro.
Check out Castro. Making this bone crushing run stop on Wisconsin's Braelon Allen pic.twitter.com/lRmsKqCyYw

— Thomas Martinez (@BoltsDraftTalk) November 4, 2023

At just a shade above 200 pounds, Castro is probably better described as a “fearless” hitter than a heavy one, but then again, the distinction may be lost on the guys on the losing end.

Sleeper of the Year: Wisconsin DB Hunter Wohler

Like a fireman or a food tester, safety is often the kind of job where the more boring it is, the better. Wohler was sufficiently boring in all phases in 2023, playing 859 of Wisconsin’s 874 defensive snaps with a minimum of drama at his expense. Per PFF, he was the Badgers’ highest graded defender as a tackler, recording a team-high 120 tackles vs. only 9 whiffs; he was also their highest-graded defender in coverage, allowing 1 touchdown with 2 picks. His overall 89.2 grade tied for No. 2 among all safeties nationally. Don’t expect much in the way of a sizzle reel, but don’t expect one from opposing offenses, either.

Comeback Player of the Year: Iowa TE Luke Lachey

The Hawkeyes are so far removed from fielding a functional offense it’s almost hard to imagine what it would look like if they did. But when they finally do manage to ignite a spark, you can bet the tight end is going to be prominently involved. Under Kirk Ferentz, Iowa has had more tight ends drafted (12) than running backs and receivers combined (8), and I defy anyone who is not an Iowa fan to recall more than one member of that latter group. (The former group includes Dallas Clark, George Kittle and Sam LaPorta, plus the trivia-question combo of TJ Hockenson and Noah Fant, both first-rounders in 2019.)

Exactly where Lachey fits in that lineage remains TBD, but there is no doubt that he’s a next-level talent, or that the offense sorely missed him last year after his season was cut short by an ankle injury in the third game.

Luke Lachey had some big plays in @HawkeyeFootball's 24-14 win over Utah State. 🙌 pic.twitter.com/xoe9RW0DAt

— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) September 2, 2023

There’s a vague sense of relief in Iowa City that, with Brian Ferentz finally out, at least the situation on offense can’t get any worse. For it to actually get better, though, Lachey specifically has to play a big part in it.

Saturday Tradition’s Ultimate 2024 Big Ten Preview: Welcome to the empire (5)

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